Europe needs a standing wartime production capacity as a Strategic Deterrent
A practical method to ensure wartime surge capacity for munition.
In the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the strategic necessity for permanent wartime production capacity has been clearly demonstrated. The conflict has exposed the limited scalability of existing defense industrial bases in Europe, particularly in artillery ammunition — a critical component of sustained modern warfare.
While peacetime procurement levels are relatively low, the ability to scale rapidly to wartime output is needed to maintain an a credible defense posture, especially against an enemy that has a significantly larger industrial base or has converted to wartime economy.
There is a need for the creation of a strategic production reserve
This can be achieved by building a clustered network of 12 fully autonomous artillery shell production facilities, each spaced at least 5 kilometers apart to mitigate shared risk, but located within close proximity to allow:
The same staff to service all 12 during peacetime
Centralize oversight and logistics
Efficient exercise and maintenance of facilities
Each site should be designed as fully self-sufficient, capable of the complete manufacturing pipeline for NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells — from forging to explosive filling, QA, and packaging.
During peacetime, each facility will operate only one month per year on a single-shift schedule to:
Meet minimal procurement requirements (~100,000 shells/year across the network)
Keep systems active and production-ready
Minimize operating costs
During wartime or national emergency, all sites can be fully activated within 90 days, scaling up to 3.6 million shells per year collectively. A similar model can be applied to other critical munition types (e.g., mortars, tank rounds, missiles).
Key Design Principles
Geographic Resilience
5 km spacing between facilities ensures survivability from missile strikes, explosions, or nuclear/EMP threats — without compromising centralized coordination.Peacetime Efficiency
Facilities run at minimal cost and effort, reducing wear while preserving rapid readiness.Wartime Surge Capacity
Capable of transitioning from standby to full-scale industrial output in under 90 days.Scalable and Extendable
This model can be adapted to other munitions or replicated in allied territories for redundancy.
CapEx Estimate (12 Facilities)
Building 12 facilities is obviously very expensive but this is CapEx and has to be done only once.
OPEX Scenarios
Operationally, it is much cheaper than keeping 12 production facilities operational in geographically separated areas and the surge capacity can be guaranteed by essentially using each production facility once a month.
This would allow the staff of one facility to maintain the strategic production reserve.
🔸 Peacetime (Hot Standby + 1-Month Operation)
Total Annual OPEX: €108M – €171.6M
Output: 100,000 shells/year
Cost per Shell: €1,080 – €1,716
🔹 Wartime (Full Activation)
Total Annual OPEX: €840M – €1.4B
Output: 3.6 million shells/year
Cost per Shell: €300 – €400
Strategic Benefits
✅ Permanent Deterrent Capacity
A standing industrial base signals capability and readiness, reinforcing deterrence.✅ Resilience & Redundancy
Distributed sites ensure survival of capacity even under attack.✅ Rapid Response
Sub-90-day activation enables a decisive ramp-up when needed.✅ Policy Alignment
Supports NATO and EU initiatives on defense readiness, stockpiling, and rearmament.
Location
As a history geek, I would find it very suiting that the old Fortresses from the 1800 would be used to house these.
They are already spaced out perfectly around a major population center and nearly every European country has them.
Although as most are now nature reserves or cultural destination this would probably not be politically feasible.